Russia has largely managed to maintain diplomatic relations in the Asia-Pacific region with China and India, its biggest allies, despite Western sanctions. But its decision to cut energy exports has strengthened Europe’s alliance with the United States, especially as Europe continues to discuss additional sanctions against Russia. The Kremlin has defended the move as a necessary measure to protect Russia’s financial reserves following heavy sanctions. “They blocked our accounts or, to put it bluntly, stole a significant portion of our reserves,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov told a news conference. Europe imports a third of its oil and gas from Russia, but that has not deterred it from using sanctions as a tool to stop the country’s aggression in Ukraine. The European Union has already imposed five rounds of economic sanctions on Russia and is expected to impose more sanctions in the coming weeks. Russia’s decision to cut off gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria – the latter of which remained undecided on its stance on Russia until the recent ban – is a dangerous move intended to serve as a warning to other European countries. But some experts have deleted the move as a miscalculation. According to Yoshiko Herrera, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who specializes in Eurasian politics, it could have the opposite effect. “One of the main arguments for people who are in favor of additional energy sanctions is to say that Russia is an unreliable partner, that they are using energy as a political tool,” Herrera said. “Thus, by cutting off gas to Poland and Bulgaria, they claim to be an unreliable partner.” Although no formal proposals have been submitted, Bloomberg reports that the EU is likely to impose a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year, gradually restricting its imports by then. “Complete European energy sanctions would really hurt [Russia’s] economy and damage their ability to wage war because they will run out of money. “So this, I think, is something that Russia should be concerned about.” “Their continuing misbehavior in Ukraine, their atrocities, is what I think is pushing Europe to radically change its position on things, on energy.”
Russia has maintained allies since its invasion of Ukraine
Screens show the passage of the UN resolution on Russia’s removal from the UN Human Rights Council following a vote by the General Assembly on April 7, 2022. Timothy A. Clary / AFP via Getty Images
Despite widespread condemnation and efforts by Western powers to isolate Russia, the country has managed to retain allies. In April, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution suspending Russia’s participation in the Human Rights Council over its invasion of Ukraine. The resolution passed with a two-thirds majority in the Member States, with 93 nations voting in favor of suspending Russia. However, 24 of the members of the body voted against the action, while 58 members abstained from voting in total. The results of the United Nations vote signal the complexity of real-world diplomacy even in the face of war. The countries of Africa, South America and Asia are increasingly trying to resist taking a stand, as the Russia-Ukraine war threatens to divide the world into political factions. But the West’s declining influence in other parts of the world, combined with the economic and political interests at stake, has led many nations to choose to maintain their independence in their relations with Russia. In Asia, where growing vigilance over China’s growing influence is being shared across borders, nations in the southeast and south of the continent have expressed their intentions to remain on good terms with Russia, despite the situation with Ukraine. Among Russia’s most loyal allies is India, with which it has maintained a strong alliance since the Soviet Union backed India in the 1971 war with Pakistan. Another factor behind their continuing friendship is India’s dependence on Russia as a military arms supplier – since the 1950s the country has received about 65 percent of firearms exports from the Soviet Union or Russia, according to the report. with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. India’s border disputes in the Himalayas with China, which sparked a bloody conflict in 2020, are another driving force for India, as Russia has acted as a major mediator in the conflict with China. The close ties between India and Russia pose challenges for Western powers as India is seen as a vital partner in limiting Russian influence in the region. China, another key ally of Russia, has avoided categorically condemning Russia, instead urging warring countries to reach a peaceful solution. In a virtual meeting with France and Germany in March, President Xi Jinping called for “maximum restraint” on the issue and expressed concern about the wider impact of sanctions on Russia. But some, like Herrera, doubt how far China will go if the situation worsens. “China has not said it will not comply with the sanctions and so far it is keeping pace with the sanctions against Russia,” Herrera said. A possible turning point, he said, could be Europe’s next sanctions, especially any secondary sanctions it imposes, which would be “a major crossroads for China to decide whether to join them”. But its ties with Russia could end up serving China financially. President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will “redirect” its energy exports to “fast-growing markets” elsewhere to help support sanctions, perhaps in an effort to maintain support from its key ally.
Russian forces continue to face military obstacles in Ukraine
After two months of conflict, tensions on the war front between Russia and Ukraine have shown no signs of escalating. The Russian military has shifted its focus in recent weeks to take control of eastern Ukraine, referred to as Donbass territory, where fighting between Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists has been going on since 2014. Russia also continued its advance on Kyiv, launching an air raid on the capital last week during a diplomatic visit by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The attack sparked widespread condemnation as an unnecessary offensive by Russian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who met with Guterres during a visit to the capital, has accused Russia of deliberately trying to humiliate the United Nations. “It says a lot about Russia’s true attitude towards world institutions, about the Russian leadership’s efforts to humiliate the UN and everything that the organization represents. “It requires a strong response,” Zelensky said in a public speech after the airstrike. Former UN Under-Secretary-General Mark Maloch-Brown said the international community “will recognize that the UN Secretary-General cannot be treated in this disrespectful, casual and frankly dangerous way by Putin.” As the conflict shows no signs of retreating, last week US President Joe Biden called on Congress to send another $ 33 billion in military aid to support Ukraine’s military defense. Biden’s proposal, which includes strategies for possible use of confiscated funds by Russian oligarchs to fund Ukraine’s military operations, is more than double the $ 13.6 billion in military and humanitarian aid already approved by the UN last month. . Herrera believes that the additional boost could be extremely useful for Ukraine, both strategically and physically, even up to that point in the war. Combined with energy sanctions from Europe, he said Russia could consider significant obstacles to achieving its goals, as “this would make a big difference in Russia’s ability to fight the war.”
