Nine decades ago it was Finland’s turn. Its legendary Winter War began in November 1939, when the Soviet Union attacked its small Scandinavian neighbor. The overcrowded and over-armed Finns endured for four months with bold attacks, guerrilla defense tactics and even a reindeer battalion. An unpleasant peace deal with Moscow in March 1940 saved Finland’s independence at a cost: 10 percent of its territory, further conflict and a troubled alliance with Nazi Germany. Determined never to be humiliated again by Moscow, the Finns spent the post-war era preparing – quietly and steadily – for the next Russian invasion. In a recent move, the Finnish government is expected to apply for NATO membership later this month, as support more than doubled in weeks to about 65 percent. For the Finns, who share a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, the era of Europe’s small, neutral, non-aligned countries is over. “Ukraine first, but what else will they try to understand, maybe even our country?” said Lt. Gen. Esa Pulkkinen, director general of defense policy at the Finnish Ministry of Defense. “This is the fear of the people. That is why we are changing completely. The pressure comes from the bottom up “. Although post-war Finland pursued a policy of neutrality, Moscow’s machinations meant that Helsinki never succeeded until the end of the Soviet era. It has always been more of a tool than a dogma, and Finns now see NATO membership as the end point of an alignment process and away from the neutrality that began with EU membership in 1995. For Lt. General Pulkkinen, the pursuit of NATO membership has been imposed on Finland by an unpredictable neighbor who is “close to a dictatorship” and is returning to the “old imperial rules”.

Irish expenditure

Surrounded by ministerial portraits of Finnish generals facing the latest wave of imperial Russian thought, Lt. Gen. Pulkkinen is confident that Finland is ready for anything Russia has planned when Helsinki applies to join NATO. But he is not so sure what the future holds for Ireland. For 20 years, the lenient Finnish military worked closely with Irish officials and, in 2020, was invited to join the Irish Defense Forces Committee. Two weeks after the commission’s 183-page report was published in February, Russia invaded Ukraine. “The report was quite revolutionary in Irish terms, but given the situation today [with Russia]”We would be even more ambitious,” said Lt. Gen. Pulkkinen. “Your defense forces are severely underfunded. I said in online tutorials that you should triple the costs. “The Irish people – and your defenses – deserve it.” Among the document’s 24 recommendations: improved troop protection, firepower and air and coastal defense, as well as significant enhancement of military intelligence and cyber defense capabilities. The continuation of “business as usual”, the report warned, would leave Ireland “without a credible military capability to protect … its people and its resources for any permanent period”. Translation: Ireland can not defend itself today, let alone tomorrow. In conversations with The Irish Times, several Finnish officials who have followed recent developments – cyber-attacks on health services and the visit of Russian vessels to Ireland’s south-west coast – are wondering aloud whether Ireland is ready for uncertain times. As one senior official puts it: “Please explain to me why Ireland is celebrating one hundred years since its independence from the United Kingdom, yet to defend this sovereignty, it relies almost entirely on the United Kingdom?”

EU integration

Not everyone in Helsinki believes that the answer for Ireland lies in following Finland in NATO. Retired Finnish General Pekka Toveri suggests the best way for Ireland to defend its interests – as an open, export-oriented service economy and multinationals – is to be an active member of the EU and lead the EU’s common security and defense structures. “Your infrastructure that needs to be protected is business and social, and the EU has a better understanding of the laws, rules and regulations you need to protect it, better tools than NATO,” he said. At the Ministry of Defense, Lt. Gen. Pulkkinen agrees that Ireland’s different history and geography mean that he has different questions to answer and “from a different perspective” about his homeland. Despite its military background, it sees the EU as a “deeper” institution than the “paper” of the NATO treaty and its promise of mutual defense. Much more can be done within EU structures, he says, to target hybrid and cyber-threats that concern Ireland more directly than conventional threats. “The key question for Ireland is: will EU membership provide you with enough security in the coming decades?” he asks. “If the answer is yes, you do not need to change anything. “If you think there is a possibility that you need a stronger and stronger military capability support for your sovereignty, go to NATO.”