President Joe Biden’s acceptance rate is stuck in the low 40s. No President has been registered for the first term to win the ground that Biden must win in the six months before the midterm elections to reach 50% of approval, let alone 60%.
Republicans currently have a 3-point lead on the general congressional ballot. There is no historical case in which the Republicans were ahead in the general ballot at this point and did not win the House in November. Republicans are also favored in the Senate, where a net gain of a seat would give them control. (See my article a few months ago.) But there have been more examples of the White House party retaining its seat or winning Senate seats in the interim than we have seen in Parliament. The Republicans, for example, had a net gain of two seats in 2018 and suffered no Senate losses in the mid-1982 period. For the Senate Democrats to have a good election night in November, a combination of at least three things must happen.

  1. Republicans nominate weak candidates. The 2022 Senate map is not so good for the GOP, with all Democrats running for re-election in Biden’s 2020 states and Republicans defending two Biden seats. Most neutral observers have noted that the top Republican candidates in the Arizona, Georgia, and New Hampshire Senate races are not the strongest candidates. This represents 21% of all GOP Senate contenders this year. (While three weak challengers in the 435-member House are unlikely to make a difference in the final result, they could make a huge difference in the 100-member Senate.) Republicans have had this problem in the past. Primary voters in both 2010 and 2012 went against safer bets and opted for more ideologically rigid candidates. The result was that Democrats had smaller-than-expected Senate losses in 2010 and gained ground two years later. Of course, the environment is so bad for Democrats that a few bad candidates are unlikely to prevent Republicans from winning a majority.
  2. The economy is improving. Inflation is high, disposable income has fallen and even the country’s GDP has fallen. When the economy is the main concern, it is difficult to win as an established party. The good news for Democrats is that the election is still six months away. Although none of these measurements are likely to improve dramatically, all are expected to improve at least slightly by November. The relationship between financial performance and the interim results is more strained than for the presidential election. However, we know that voters tend to place more emphasis on recent economic growth than just the basics. In addition, we also know that Biden’s financial acceptance rating has moved almost hand in hand with his overall acceptance rating.
  3. Everyone who approves of Biden is a Democrat. Biden’s acceptance rating will be crucial this fall, at a time when direct ticket voting is very high. Historically, the magic sign for a president in the midterm elections was the approval of 60%. But that may no longer be the case with more Americans voting for the party in the White House when approving the president and voting against it when disapproving. Thus, Biden’s turnout may only need to be around 50% – if not a little lower, if the Democrats have an advantage over the quality of the candidates. Biden’s immediate predecessor could offer him some hope. Trump’s acceptance rate, according to the exit poll on election day 2018, was about 4 points higher than what polls at this point showed four years ago. However, Biden would need even more improvement than Trump. If he manages to get the 47% approval by election day, that may be enough. That may be far-fetched, but it’s all Democrats have.

Ohio Senate Qualifiers: A 2024 Preview?

Several Republicans are vying in the May 3 primary for the outgoing seat of outgoing GOP Sen. Rob Portman. US MP Tim Ryan is the big favorite on the Democratic side. Leading GOP nominees include State Senator Matt Dolan, businessman Mike Gibbons, former state treasurer Josh Mandel, former state party president Jane Timken and author JD Vance. A Fox poll this week found that Vance, a Trump supporter, jumped from 11% in a previous Fox poll to 23% in the GOP, 18% in Mandel, 13% in Gibbons. to 11% of Dolan and 6% of Timken. . To be clear, this is a fight that is very close to happening. The actual margin of error (ie, 95% confidence interval) for the margin between the two top candidates in the last three weeks of the campaign has been around plus or minus 22 points since 2000. It would not be surprising if Mandel or Vance end up win by a huge margin or if someone else won. After all, a quarter of the electorate remains undecided, according to the Fox poll. Trump’s support for Vance was a blow to Mandel, who was a huge supporter of the former president. He has also set the qualifiers as a representative battle for 2024. Mandel has been backed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who, like Trump, has his eyes on a 2024 bid. Cruz follows Trump by a wide margin in the 2024 polls, and Mandel’s defeat on Tuesday would only reinforce that Cruz’s name is not worth much to Republicans nationally. On the other hand, a victory of Vance in the qualifying elections would do the opposite for Trump. We can not stress enough that Vance seemed almost finished until the former President approved him. Although Trump may not be as popular with Republicans as he was a few years ago, a Vance victory would show that, with all other equivalents, Trump remains a force to be reckoned with in the Republican primary. If Mandel or another Republican wins, then we have a lot to say next.

For your brief meetings: Welcome to the best time of the year

Sunday starts in May, if you do not have your calendar in front of you. And while this intrepid analyst may prefer winter snow, most of you disagree. Indeed, I looked at polls from 1960, 2005 and this past year, and they all found the same thing: most Americans choose May as their favorite month or their second favorite month. According to Goldilocks, May, for many, is not too hot or too cold, but right. Short meeting on April 24: Last week, I pointed out that the poll that showed support for marijuana legalization was at an all-time high. For those of you who hope marijuana will be legalized nationally, however, CNN reports show that, at least at this point, there are not enough votes in the Senate for that to happen.

Poll remnants

Financial Confidence Remains Quite Low: Gallup’s latest monthly check-in shows that the American Financial Confidence Rating (which, on a scale of -100 to +100, combines current and future views on the economy) remains at -39. That equates to last month for the lowest score since the Great Recession a decade ago. Stress Leads to Retirement From College: One-third of all current college students pursuing a college or associate degree said they had considered dropping out of college for at least a semester, according to Gallup. The No. 1 reason (76% for undergraduate students and 63% for graduates) was emotional stress. Children’s screen time increased during pandemic: In the hobby section, the Pew Research Center has new data on children’s screen time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Parents of a child aged 11 and under said their child was more likely to use a tablet (68% of parents in March 2020 to 81% in April 2021), a smartphone (from 63% to 71%) and a game console ( from 45% to 51%).