Not all Senate Republicans want someone other than Vance to win the primary. Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), For example, is a staunch supporter of Vance, a fellow graduate of Yale Law School.
However, GOP lawmakers see the open race as a key test of Trump’s political influence in next year ‘s Republican primary and the GOP Senate conference next year, which will have a different flavor after the departure of Sen. Roy Blunt (R -Mo.), Richard Burr (RN.C.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) And Pat Toomey (R-Pa.).
Burr and Toomey voted last year to convict Trump of a charge of inciting the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack.
“If he does not win, we will take advantage of what is worthwhile and say that Trump ratification is not the best, the end of everything was once and maybe now we can take a breather from the madness,” he said. a senior GOP senator who said 70 percent of Senate Republicans share that sentiment, though only a few would dare to say so publicly.
A Republican senator who followed the race said some of his colleagues want to win anyone other than the Trump-backed candidate. “Some people feel that way,” the senator acknowledged, but also noted that Howley has backed Vance.
Hawley is the only Senate approval listed on Vance’s website.
Senate Minority Whip John Thune (RS.D.), who occasionally criticizes Trump and has angered the former president as a result, said he would be interested in reading the press if Trump’s preferred candidate did not makes it a victory.
“You are all experts. “You will interpret that,” he told a group of reporters when asked what the loss of Vance would mean for Trump’s bid to become king in the GOP qualifiers. “If Vance fails, I will look forward to reading your interpretations the next day.”
Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who is looking forward to running for president in 2024, campaigned over Vance’s rival, former state treasurer Josh Mandel, over the weekend.
Cruz on Tuesday praised Mandel as a “strong candidate”.
“My philosophy for approvals is that I’m looking for the strongest conservative he can win and I spent two days this weekend campaigning with Josh in Ohio. We had crowds everywhere we went. There was a lot of excitement on the ground, but it will depend on participation [Tuesday] “and who shows up to vote,” he said. Cruz said he did not believe Vans’s defeat would mean Trump would lose control of the Democratic Party, but predicted that “I’m sure the press will write it that way.”
MP Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Another prominent conservative with presidential ambitions, backs businessman Mike Gibbons in the race.
Gibbons was the first for a while, but he started to fall in the polls after Trump supported Vance.
Republican aides and generals, however, say that if Trump’s support fails to emerge victorious in Ohio, it will cast doubt on his political power next year.
A second Republican aide said it would be “fun to watch” if a Trump-backed candidate wins the Ohio Senate by-election, and predicted that if Matt Dolan wins, he would make a noise in the Republican House. Dolan, who has risen to third place, is a candidate as a traditional conservative and has not sought Trump’s approval. “I would love to see this happen,” the source said of a possible Dolan upset.
The average of the recent polls conducted by RealClearPolitics on Monday showed that Vance had a lead of 3.5 percent.
A poll by the Republican Trafalgar Group from April 29 to May 1 found Vance leading the way with 26 percent, followed by Dolan with 22 percent, Mandel with 21 percent and Gibbons with 13 percent.
There are also questions about how closely even Trump is watching the race.
Trump described Vance’s name during a rally in Nebraska on Sunday, confusing him with Mandel. “We supported… JP, right?” said Trump. «JD Mandel. And he is doing well. ”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Celebrated what he thought was Trump’s political death after he appeared to incite a crowd of supporters to invade the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in a bid to halt its credentials. victory of President Biden.
According to a new book by Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns, McConnell was “excited” about Trump’s apparent political collapse, telling a New York Times reporter that he thought Trump had in fact “put a gun to his head and hit trigger”. .
Instead, Trump remained in the political spotlight and retained his grip on the Republican Party.
But that influence will be called into question if Vance, who was approved by Trump on April 15, does not win, GOP generals say.
“It gives us a small peak in 2024. Maybe in January and February of 2021, the Republican establishment assumed that if Trump entered [White House] he would have an open road to the presidency, and I do not think anyone is thinking that anymore. “Trump will have significant primaries with many candidates vying for him,” said Matt Dole, a political adviser to the Ohio-based GOP.
“The party will not, of course, unite behind Trump. “He has to work for it,” he added.
Dole predicts that if Vance wins, Trump will advertise his role in the race to build political momentum for the next election.
According to this scenario, “the messages are likely that Trump has very good power at the party in Ohio in 2022,” he said.
But he noted, “Let’s not forget that JD Vance raised a load of money on his campaign and raised a load of money on a super PAC that played a major role in this fight.”
“It was not just Trump. “Peter Thiel deserves a little credit if Vance wins,” he said, referring to the conservative mega donor who has poured at least $ 13.5 million into a super PAC in Vance’s favor, according to OpenSecrets.org. Justin Bachler, a professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, said Trump’s impact on Vance’s rise in opinion polls had been overestimated because his numbers began to rise before Trump backed them.
Americans see increase in borrowing from friends and family: research The Navy allows sailors to move away from the USS George Washington A Trafalgar Group poll of GOP qualifiers on April 13 and 14, before Trump announced his support, found Vance in second place with 22.6 percent, five points behind him. candidate Mandel.
Buchler said Trump’s approval of the Senate by-elections “keeps him politically active and the center of the republican universe.”
“What is interesting and confusing for me is how often it loses its mark with its approvals,” he said. “If he can be a king or at least be considered a king, then he leaves him in charge of the Republican Party. What has fascinated me empirically is that the party base ignores failures. I do not know why this is. ”