The Kings started the year as long shots in the playoffs despite the intense offseason and suffered many injuries along the way. The Oilers started out strong, but fell close to mid-season. But after a season full of ups and downs, they are both here. The Kings came together after losing their best defender due to injury, while the Oilers came alive after a change behind the bench. Edmonton looked like a well-oiled machine from the change of coach, a team that looks one of the best in the West. The Los Angeles series will be the one that will come one day with the young torso that the team has gathered, but this day may not be this year. The Kings are more than happy to be here, but they are still entering this series as heavy outsiders. An almost 70-30 chance of splitting in a row is far from the most one-sided row of the first round. But the Oilers continue to enter this series as the decided favorite – something that the relative “heavy” of each team does not change. The most likely result here is an Oilers win in five games, although any Oilers result is more likely than any Kings win. This does not mean that the Kings can not win this series – it just is not very likely. This is especially true when we see how the two teams closed the season. The recent appearance is not something that is reflected in the odds mentioned above, but if you like a team that comes in hot, the Oilers are this. The Oilers are probably not as dominant as these numbers, but they are probably not as mediocre as the numbers of their entire season. Regardless, it is still a team that has a significant advantage over the Kings across the board. Edmonton’s advantage stems from her game after the change of coach. Before that, things were very bleak for the Oilers. There were problems in the nets, in the defense and not enough offensive contributions under their top players. With a five-on-five, the Oilers went from an average team offensively to a team that can create higher quality opportunities on a more solid basis under Jay Woodcroft. It would help to have better luck in the shots. in the last month, it fell a bit compared to the rest of the league. If this falls closer to their average, then they should be in better shape. With some strategic changes back in their own zone, the Oilers have done a better job of reducing their shooting volume – although that has dropped over the last month. This group is still far from perfect, but the best game in front of the cup seems to have helped lift his game to the end. If this current trend applies to Edmonton, it will be a favorable match against a team with serious problems at the finish. Los Angeles is a good team in creating an attack in terms of quality and quantity, but the results are far behind. Based on the quality of their shots, the Kings are expected to approach 178 goals this season, something that would put them in the top half of the league. In fact, they are well below the 153 goals scored – the product of a good system that lacks talent. However, team defense is the strength of the Kings. While they received more shots in the last month than during the season as a whole, an attempt was made to reduce the chances of quality against. Their goalkeepers just have to respond well to this workload. For the year, the goalkeeper was average, but he is tired. For the Kings to have a shot, they need their talent at the finish and the goal scorer to click at the same time. Not having either would probably mean leaving early. The special teams fight to a large extent in favor of Edmonton, too. Power play has not returned to the heights it was to open the season, but it is still effective. Those like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl running this unit against a penalty that ranks in the last half of the league both in expected and real goals against are a legitimate concern for Los Angeles. The Kings find it difficult to finish with the advantage of the man, although they have tendencies in the right direction below the surface. Again, talent is an issue. Despite some improvements in their short hand, the Oilers are not perfect in their own zone – the strong goal lately has helped to hide it. There is a possibility that the underdog will try to push the pace here, especially if Edmonton’s game in the net can not stand. But the odds are right against them here. There is a lot that needs to be overcome in terms of talent. The biggest reason the Oilers are so favored in this series is because they have McDavid and Draisaitl and the Kings do not. The 3 to 20 players are relatively close, but having two of the best players in the world tilts the scales in Edmonton’s favor. In hockey, it is difficult for a player to dictate the outcome of a match on his own, but there are exceptions to this rule. McDavid is one of those exceptions and Draisaitl is not far off. McDavid is one of only two players to be awarded more than six valuable wins and comes from his eerie ability to influence attack. In the last five seasons, he has a lead of almost 100 points over the next best non-Oiler in scoring, having won the title of scorer in three of those five seasons. The fact that he did it this year, despite the fact that he was terribly unlucky in the percentage of his shots on the ice at five against five, is proof of his talents. What made McDavid particularly special in the last two seasons is his attention to detail defensively. Prior to the 2020-21 season, McDavid’s defense was a major concern that hampered its overall value. It is no coincidence that the best forwards of the season followed as McDavid became a much more complete player. His defense is still only mediocre, but this is a huge step up and makes his attacking game more effective. In relation to his teammates, the only player with the greatest impact on the expected goals in the last two years from McDavid is the frequent teammate of Jesse Puljuarvi. Combine it with the ability to score 130 points and you have a scary weapon to limit. The fact that the Oilers also have Draisaitl makes them even scarier, especially now that the two of them are on different lines. Draisaitl is not the same presence in the driving game as McDavid, mainly due to his poor defensive ability, but in the second line he does not really need to be to bring huge value thanks to his offensive ability. It is extremely rare to have a Draisaitl caliber gun leading the second line, but Oilers who have amassed considerable depth in recent years have offered the luxury of doing just that. There just aren’t many people who can score or pass at Draisaitl pace. It is a double threat. While McDavid and Draisaitl operate on separate lines to spread the wealth, there will often be duos where the duo will unite to overload the Los Angeles defense. It’s hard to see the Kings being able to handle that. With these two, the power star is wonderfully in favor of Edmonton. With Drew Doughty out for the rest of the year, the Kings are missing one player with elite potential. Although the addition of Phillip Danault reduced Anze Kopitar’s workload and helped him recover, he is not at the elite level he once was. The advantage that Los Angeles has with these two is the defensive power in the middle. While McDavid and Draisaitl may be more valuable, Kopitar and Danault have the ability to lift the scales with their collective defensive presence – and they are not exactly aggressive either. In previous years, Danault’s five-on-five offensive impact was not very remarkable, but his excellent defensive effect was the highlight of his game. That shone brightly in the Canadiens’ unexpected run in the Stanley Cup final – closing out Auston Matthews in the first round and Mark Stone in the semifinals. This is what McDavid and Draisaitl face in this round. And as much as they can try to control the match at home, the presence of Kopitar makes this difficult. It’s a match the Oilers duo have to win because of their explosive attack (McDavid surpasses them both together), but Danault and Kopitar have a great way of canceling it. It will not be easy. Kopitar has been in Selke’s conversation for years and sometimes this two-way rumor has become overly publicized. Last year the attacking impact was still there, but his play in his own zone slipped. This year, however, this reputation has won well. It may have to do with Danault easing some of the pressures of this shutdown role, but he seems to have revitalized his game. This season, Kopitar has reduced his opponents’ expected goal-scoring nearly 8 percent more than the average player would, given his zone starts, coaching impact and competition. Aside from the two games in the center, the remaining depth forward is also an advantage for Edmonton, though obviously not to the same degree. It starts with the Oilers having four other strikers who are in good faith top six talents, three of whom are top line. Two of them, Evander Kane and Puljujarvi, frame McDavid and while this is obviously a fun place, the two fit in perfectly next to McDavid. Although Kane came to the Eilers with a lot of luggage off the ice, he achieved even more than expected on the ice, playing at a rate of 3.3 wins this season. Scoring 22 goals and 39 points in 42 games will do that, with a steady pace of 43 goals and 76 points for the entire season. It basically continued from where it left off with the Sharks. Pulujujarvi is the worker bee on the line and his work is incredible. It may not produce much, but it quickly becomes one of the best game guides – McDavid’s expected goal numbers are always stronger with Puljujarvi by his side. Add Kane’s sniper ability to it along with …
