Nhl 2022 Playoff Preview Maple Leafs Vs Lightning

Their reward? The two-time Stanley Cup defender. Of course. It probably does not matter who plays Toronto as the real season begins. The Leafs lost when they were heavy underdogs from Washington and Boston. They lost when they were colluding with Boston. And they lost when they were heavy favorites against Columbus and Montreal. It does not matter who the other side is because the biggest enemy of the Leaf is themselves. The odds do not matter. It’s a reflection of an unconscious model that knows nothing about how well the Leafs have played in recent regular seasons. Are the Leaves Cursed? The model does not know. Do they know how to win when it counts? The model does not know. Can Lightning turn the switch now that the playoffs are here? The model does not know. And so, as a naive child, he thinks that this time things will be different. The model is obviously not a Leafs fan or biased towards the Leafs – because a Leafs fan would know better. It is the hope that kills you and the model is suffocating on her right now. No, it’s not a typo. According to The Model, the defenders of the Stanley Cup champions are significant outsiders in this series – something that does not even correct the advantage of their size. If the playoffs are really a different beast and some teams just know how to win, then the odds are just awful… right? Each season is brand new and although we use previous ones to help you know what to expect, the latest season will always carry the most weight. And in 2022, the Leafs were a better team than the Lightning. Special teams, even strength, top talent, depth, as you say – the tip reaches Toronto. The Leafs’ best players got better while Lightning relegated, all while losing key talent in the offseason. The Leafs must be favored, they finally finished well ahead of the Lightning. This is proven in the following numbers, but so much towards this group it feels almost masochistic. Lightning is a team that knows how to win and how to raise its games when it counts. This is a scary proposition from a modeling point of view when only regular season statistics are taken into account and that is probably where the gap lies. Maybe this is the year the Leafs will finally be over – and just a few years ago Tampa Bay was on a similar boat. You are not a winner until you win and this is worth considering in terms of “knowing how to win”. Sixth time is the charm, but once Tampa Bay turns the switch, it’s hard to see the gap between these two clubs being as big as the model does. A key difference between Lightning and Maple Leafs that affects this gap is the attack of each team. Toronto was a team of the top five in the whole table. Although their generation of shooting opportunities and quality has dwindled a bit lately, it does not appear on the scoresheet with their finish to lift things up. The most realistic expectations are closer to their achievements throughout the season compared to this last month of play, but in any case, this is a team in a very good position to do some damage this post-season. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is at a lower level offensively. This may seem strange, given some of the fine players ahead. Some of their numbers throughout the season are affected by the absence of players at the start of the season – mainly Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. While they remained on the surface, the trends below the surface were more indicative of their true performance. Defensively, the match is close. These are two teams that closely match the shots and the quality opportunities they give against. Recently, Toronto was the best team in suppressing the attack. But without so much stability in the net, it does not always look like that on the scoresheet that can mitigate Toronto’s attacking advantage. So why are Leafs such a heavy favorite? Let’s start from the top with what is arguably the best duo in the league right now: Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. No player, skater or goalkeeper has a higher predicted GSVA than Matthews with 6.8 wins. It has been rated so high, the highest rating this model has ever given to any player, because he has played around or above this level in two consecutive seasons, doing many things that the model loves: scoring many goals and influencing the game in both two edges of ice. Matthews has now scored at a rate of 65 goals or more in consecutive seasons, raising his projected total to 61.6 in 82 games. Being a true 50-goal scorer is incredible in this league, but over 60 goals is a whole new level. Being able to count to score consistently is an extremely special gift and is the biggest reason Matthews is so valuable. It is also a force on both ends of the ice. For the season Matthews posted an astonishing expected goal percentage of 64%, the fourth highest score in the era of analytics. Controlling the game at this level is obscene and is what makes Matthews so hard to stop. When on the ice, it has a strong inclination towards the offensive zone. And if he is in the offensive zone, there is a good chance he will score. However, Matthews does not work alone and Marner’s presence is obviously a huge plus. It is possible that no player can reach their current heights without the other, but this is not a real concern when they have each other. The chemistry between the two is shocking with Marner’s elite ability to play a game that helps Matthews reach such incredible scoring heights. They would both be elites on their own, but this transcendental level they have shown this year is a testament to how much they elevate each other. Now… can they do it in the playoffs? This is the big question here, which no one will be able to escape until they really do. Matthews was the best player in the league this season and Marner was not far behind – they have to show that they can do it when the games are more important or everything will be in vain. This is something the Lightning stars learned before their consecutive league. Now their top players are facing a different kind of pressure: overcoming what they have already achieved. Going into this series, Kucherov plans to be the most valuable of the Tampa Bay forwards with 4.1 wins. This time, he has a regular season on his assets and should not face some of the same problems he had last year trying to get back in shape when the postseason had already started. Kucherov lost a lot of time earlier this season, so his score does not match some of the best in the league. But when he calculates the minutes of play, he immediately slips into the top three of the league with 4.38 points per 60 in all situations. This is the second best in his career, only in a remarkable 2018-19 season with 128 points. It is a weapon in the power play with the accuracy of the shot and the insidious good movement of the mouse to set up people like Steven Stamkos with a royal pass. This is true in five vs. five, where it is one of the most positive influences on the team attack. Few can create off-field shots like Kucherov. The point of weakness, however, is his game back in his own zone. And against a team with as much firepower as the Maple Leafs, which could easily burn them if coach Jon Cooper opted for a strength-boost match. Another threat to score on this top line is Stamkos, who reached 100 points for the first time in his career with 42 goals and 64 assists. He finished the regular season with a hat-trick against the Islanders that extended his streak of points to 11 games with 26 points. The Thunderbolts obviously hope that the teams in a postseason run similar to last year, where he had 18 points in 23 games. Keravnos won 61 percent of the goals with Stamko on the ice this year thanks to his offensive performance and 53 percent of the expected goals. Stamkos can challenge the defenders with his deadly shot – which Kucherov’s pass can raise – or he can set up his teammates. This makes having this pair on the same line even more difficult for the defenders, as it is difficult to predict how the game will develop between the two. Audrey Palat does not pushover either, although not at the level of his teammates. is a key facilitator that should not be overlooked. Unlike the Maple Leafs, there are no two elite talents on the second line. This is only for Braden Point, who was not even the usual self to break the game this season. That, of course, could change over the next two weeks – if one stands up for what matters most, it’s the Point. It is the engine of this group. The Lightning Center is an elite transitional stage with its explosive skating. The reason Point’s value is so low is that Lightning just wasn’t as dominant as you would expect on ice. They won just 51 percent of the actual and expected goals and their 58 points in 66 games equate to just 72 points. With five against five, his 1.88 points per 60 was his lowest in five seasons – and that was with a high 11.4% of shots on ice. He simply did not take part in the attack as usual. Tampa Bay has three star-level strikers, but according to the model the Leafs have five that equate to Colorado for the lead in the league. Matthews and Marner are not debatable in this regard and few would disagree against John Tavares or William Nylander, who were both close to scoring points per game. This second dynamic duo makes the Toronto attack such a huge threat and if the first two lines click at the same time, this will be a big problem for …

title: “Nhl 2022 Playoff Preview Maple Leafs Vs Lightning Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-10-30” author: “Jennifer Miller”