What will it take for the Maple Leafs to defeat their demons and defeat the two-time defending champions? Let’s take a closer look at what needs to go right. The more the better.
Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner go bananas
If Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are the two best players in the series, the Leafs’ chances of moving on will obviously be high. Matthews and Marner set a very good example of what this kind of April 4 domination in Tampa looks like. That night, Matthews slipped with three goals in front of Andrei Vasilevski, two of which were set by Marner. Marner added a goal on his own to a clever steal from Matthews. If Rocket winner Richard Trophy is going to do that, the Leafs will have a hard time stopping. It did not seem to matter what Lightning’s line was against Matthews, Marner and Michael Bunting that night. Brayden Point. Anthony Cirelli. The Leafs’ top line did the damage. Of course, a definite opponent for the duo in this series was absent that night: Ryan McDonagh, one of the best hockey stoppers. “For me, he is the best defender they have,” said Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe. “McDonagh knows exactly what his job is. It prevents and will be physical and will protect the net “. Tampa will want McDonagh and her partner Eric Chernak to match Matthews and Marner as often as possible. McDonagh got into a fight with Matthews during a fight in early November (Marner was playing with John Tavares that night) and shut him down. Expected goals were 16% for the Leafs in the 11 minutes Matthews was on the ice with McDonagh – and 77% when he was not. Things have changed a lot since then. First, Matthews has long undergone wrist surgery out of a season that continued to affect his game in November. Marner also became a monster scorer in the second half, while doing normal things for Marner. (Kim Klement / USA Today) This is the issue: Marner and Matthews were elite players last season when they faced Montreal. They are even better this time. They force more turnovers and turn those looks into juicy offensive opportunities. They are even more in sync after another full season together. “You can see how they move the elf out of the zone and how they move it into the neutral zone,” Morgan Rielly said of their chemistry at one point this season. “There are a lot of great lines that do not really do that. They go very crosswise. They use each other. They cross one below the other. “When they are confident and play well, it really translates into any zone.” Dominate the minutes Matthews-Marner and the Leafs will be in good shape. It is the only line where they have at least some kind of advantage. And you can bet that Keefe will play them even more than in the regular season. With the advantage of the ice at home, Keefe can try to exchange some shifts against McDonagh with those against the less scary (though not physically) Zach Bogosian. Not having Bunting, in all probability, to start the series hits the unit a bit. His advantage, energy and instinct were aggressively combined with Matthews and Marner. Alex Kerfoot has not spent much time with any player, although he is smart and adaptable. Matthews will definitely need a little more luck on his part than he had in the previous playoffs. The 24-year-old scored 2.9 percent in seven games against the Habs last year, 7.4 percent against the Blue Jackets in 2020 and 3.7 percent two years earlier in another series of seven games against the Bruins.
The Leafs win the power-play war
Another development that could push the Leafs to the second round: their power play can really cook this time. Take a second to remember how funny things were in last year’s playoffs in power play. The Leafs entered this Montreal series with one of the worst units in the league. Things are very different now. This is the No. 1 power play in the league. The top team is a monster that changes shape and is no longer predictable or completely dependent on one thing – the Matthews explosion. In fact, in the last 30 games of the season, William Nylander led the team with seven power-play goals, followed by Matthews and John Tavares with four goals. The Leafs scored four times on 11 occasions against the Bolts penalty, although one was in the OT and another came from Ilya Mikheyev during this recent 8-1 shellacking. Because Lightning themselves have a very bad power play, which is particularly hot in this series, winning the power-play war could be a decisive factor in this series.
Jack Campbell is equal (or close enough) to Andrei Vasilevsky
The Leafs have not won a goalkeeper match in any of their five consecutive playoff defeats. They are heading into this with, clearly, the second best man. Andrei Vasilevsky is as good as he gets, a 6-foot, 225-pound rock star who dominated the Tampa consecutive Stanley Cup. Jack Campbell does not necessarily have to make him better. He has an offense in front of him that may only require an equal performance. Exactly stable – not unlike how Campbell played the stretch (7-0-2, with 0.915 percentage points after returning from a rib injury and resuming last season). Campbell just has to do the setbacks he has to do. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today) Keep bad goals to a minimum. Campbell had these moments against the Hubs last spring. Frederick Andersen did the same in the playoffs before that. Cut them out and keep them close with Vasilevskiy and a clear Lightning advantage disappears. “I’m just trying to do the best I can,” Campbell said. “I have absolute faith in the children in front of me. We all do our job and I absolutely believe that we can do the job. “
Sheldon Keefe surpasses Jon Cooper
Keefe recently noted how different his third NHL playoff series will be from the previous two. No. 1: The Leafs will have fans at the Scotiabank Arena this time after almost empty buildings in 2020 and 2021. The advantage of ice at home should mean a little more. No. 2: The coach has a staff that has fully chosen his position. Keefe inherited Dave Hakstol and Paul McFarland from Mike Babcock when he took over in the middle of the 2019-20 season. He brought in Manny Malholtra and Paul MacLean before his first full season. Dean Chynoweth and Spencer Carbery have been added this season. These are his children. Keefe will face the gold medalist of the league behind the bench right now to Jon Cooper. No easy opponents, obviously, and one with much more NHL playoff experience. Keefe pressed many of the right buttons during a record-breaking regular season. Making decisions behind the bench becomes much more difficult in the playoffs. The margin of error becomes thinner than ever. In both of these first two playoff series, Keefe hesitated to do too much and not enough. The Leafs coach is already making some interesting choices ahead of game 1. He seems ready to let Ondrej Kase go to the second line. Kase has not played since mid-March due to concussion. Sunday marked his first full training session. The future series of Tavares, Kase and Mikheyev have not spent any time together, although Kase and Mikheyev have played quite well with Tavares. Projected Game 1 lineup LineLWCRW 1 Kerfoot Mathius Marner 2 Mikheev Tavares Case 3 Nylander Kampf Engvall 4 Clifford Blackwell Simmonds COUPLING LD RD 1 Rielly Lubuskin 2 Mouzin Brody 3 Giordano Liljegren TARGET 1 Campbell He also plans to put Kyle Clifford and Wayne Simmonds in a fourth line centered on Colin Blackwell. It is admittedly an attempt to match Tampa’s physicality to what Keefe expects to be a “marginally violent” series. Keefe needs to figure out quickly if Jake Muzzin can handle the effort to slow down Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov – and be ready to pivot if not. Other upcoming decisions could include whether Tavares and Nylander will be reunited, whether we will put Timothy Liljegren and / or Ilya Lyubushkin on top of Justin Holl, how to match this Tampa top line and how to react if Matthews and Marner – or the team in general – is somehow blocked early in the series. Choose correctly most of the time and the Cooper tip disappears.
The fourth line is saved
Tampa has a legal fourth line, perhaps the best in the NHL. Naturalness, energy, general discomfort and ability to put some buck in the net. Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare combine to bring some of everything, including three goals in four games against the Leafs. Hold this line for a draw on the fourth line facing the match and Keefe will be happy. Set the odd goal and gather substantial energy that directs the momentum from the bottom of the lineup and the Leafs coach will be thrilled. Is Clifford and Simmonds playing with Blackwell the answer? The Leafs scored a hammer (35 percent of expected goals) in their limited minutes together this season. A trio like this can be ugly, but it seems unlikely to do much aggression. Simmonds has scored one goal and four points in his last 39 games. Clifford has one goal and three points in his 23 games. At some point, Jason Spezza will have a chance. And in fact, the most effective of the various fourth-line combinations were Spezza, Blackwell, and Clifford (59 percent). (Kim Klement / USA Today) This may seem like a very marginal part of the series. And in a way it is. But if the Leafs can not get their fourth line every now and then and do not see the ice slipping, Tampa has a clear advantage.
