War is not inevitable, but the conditions are there
As Eid approaches and the holy month of Ramadan draws to a close, there is a quiet hope that total conflict has been averted – for the time being. It was a very tense month. I can not remember how many times I woke up early from explosions coming from the al Aqsa complex in the old city – every time you wonder if this will be the day that will eventually escalate out of control. I spoke to people from all walks of life, every day – Palestinians living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, Israelis in government and the military, Gaza, diplomats, humanitarian workers and, of course, ordinary people, just hoping to live their lives in peace. religion or nationality and whether they identify. The common denominator is that no one knows what might happen – here it is just very unpredictable. “Ali, if a war breaks out, it will probably happen where you least expect it, triggered by a small event that does not seem to be much, but ends up being the last glass,” was the repeated advice from a trusted colleague here, who has seen it all many times in the past. Tensions this year have taken a different form from the violence that led to war 12 months ago. Sheikh Jarrah, the Palestinian neighborhood sought by some Israelis in East Jerusalem, was unusually quiet. similarly the Damascus Gate, where young Palestinians gather to celebrate iftar after sunset. Both were scenes of horrific violence last year. Instead, some of them happened deep in the West Bank, often out of sight of most people and where there were no journalists on hand to cover it. The IDF’s operations in Jenin continue and have the potential to cause serious violence if the Israelis go heavy, as some newspapers here speculate, when Ramadan ends. What is not disputed is that the living conditions of the Palestinians in the West Bank have deteriorated significantly since last year. Young people have few prospects or opportunities. They tell me that they feel humiliated and oppressed, often just scared. Some of them are also now openly expressing the prospect of a new intifada. I do not think we are still at this stage, but it is noteworthy that they bring it unannounced. The ruling Palestinian Authority is very weak and is doing little to improve the lives of many of its people. However, despite its best efforts to ferment the “resistance” in the West Bank last month, Hamas has not yet kept its toes firmly in the territory. Perhaps most troubling was the assessment of a humanitarian worker who told me that many in the West Bank now realize that they are in a worse position than their fellow Palestinians living in Gaza. Gaza – the strip that has been under siege for 15 years, repeatedly bombed by airstrikes and surrounded by walls and fences that prevent most civilians from leaving. And yet the perception now is that it is worse in the West Bank – that should give us a break from thinking. Another war is not inevitable, things can be done to avoid it. But as we are today, looking back on a month of turmoil and violence, the conditions for war are clearly there – if not now, then one day soon.
