“There was a chance there would be more attacks and it is not fun to wait to find out where they will be hit next,” he said. Rumors were growing that men in the area would mobilize to fight alongside Russian troops across the border in Ukraine. So Pasha, his mother and his friend, fellow journalist Maxim, 23, packed up their belongings and drove to the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, where they live with relatives. They hope to return to their homeland, but other friends who have left Transnistria have already taken refuge in Turkey, Poland or the Czech Republic. With a population of 470,000, Transnistria is a predominantly Russian-speaking strip of land wedged between the Nistro River and the border with Ukraine. A year after Moldova declared its independence from the Soviet Union, the region seceded in 1992 after a five-month war in which Russian forces (and Crimean Cossacks) sided with the separatists. No country, not even Russia, has recognized the self-proclaimed Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, but the “frozen conflict” has kept Moldova divided ever since. Now, many fear that last week’s eruptions could herald a dangerous thaw. On Monday, government buildings in Tiraspol were hit by rocket-propelled grenades. In the following days, explosions struck a Russian-language radio tower, and shots were reportedly fired near a Russian weapons depot. Authorities in Tiraspol have blamed the attacks on Ukrainian invaders. Kyiv has accused Russia of launching attacks to further destabilize the region, while Moscow has denounced them as “acts of terrorism”. Meanwhile, Moldova’s pro-European president, Maya Santou, has blamed outbursts on internal strife between rival factions in Transnistria. But uncertainty has raised growing concerns that Moldova could be dragged into the Ukraine conflict. Moscow has long used Transnistria as a bargaining chip in its efforts to influence Moldova. The area still houses 1,500 Russian troops, as well as 20,000 tonnes of ammunition stored in Cobasna, the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. Among last week’s incidents were shootings a mile away from Cobasna, according to Transnistrian authorities. Moldovan government sources fear that if the warehouse were blown up it could lead to an explosion 10 times larger than the explosion in Beirut in 2020, where 2,000 tons of ammunition were stored. Despite its weak economy, Moldova has already received about 95,000 people fleeing the war in Ukraine, equivalent to 3.5% of its population, according to the Moldovan Foreign Ministry. Last week’s events have prompted many refugees to consider leaving again. “If there is a war in Transnistria, I will probably leave for Germany,” said Liuda, a 35-year-old accountant and unmarried mother who left Mariupol in March and now works for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Moldova. . Security has been stepped up on the Transnistrian border, causing long traffic queues, but at Moldovan checkpoints down the road, security forces are simply passing vehicles by hand. The Moldovan government has pledged to step up security, but for now life is normal in Chisinau. In Valea Morilor Park, jokers roam the lake, fishermen cast their lines, and the loudest sound is the voice of a canoe trainer training her students. Buyers at the Central Market in Chisinau. Photo: Daniel Mihăilescu / AFP / Getty Images Across the city, Chisinau’s central market is packed with people shopping for food and promotions for the upcoming Pastele Blajinilor, Moldova’s Remembrance Day. But here too, there is a limit to uncertainty. Alex, a market stallman, had just called a cousin in Italy he was considering joining, he said. “I have a wife and a baby and I do not feel safe here,” he said. In Transnistria, separatist authorities have remained silent about the war raging in Ukraine. “Transnistrian leaders are careful,” said Moldovan journalist Alina Radu. “They do not cheer for the war, nor do they criticize Russia’s military aggression.” Since the death of its Soviet-era industry, the Transnistrian economy has been dominated by a small elite. Russia provides Transnistria with free gas, which gives companies in the region a competitive advantage over Moldovan companies. Its largest heterogeneous group, which controls everything from gas stations to cognac distilleries – and the FC Sheriff football team – was founded by former KGB agent Victor Gușan, who also has a Ukrainian passport and is owned in Kyiv. “Transnistrian leaders are under a lot of pressure,” said Moldovan journalist Alina Radu. “For the first time, they are isolated. Both Moldova and Ukraine have non-Russian governments. “Transnistrian elites have two choices: to follow in the footsteps of Putin, the most formidable dictator today, or to have a prosperous future with Europe.” Analysts in Chisinau warn that Russia’s security and propaganda networks are spreading. A recent report by the Royal United Services Institute stated that the Russian FSB was intended to “destabilize Moldova in order to deter Ukrainian forces on the southern border, to address the growing pro-European sentiment in the country and to show the West that it supports “Ukraine is in danger of wider consequences, including in the Balkans.” Valeriu Pasa, of the Moldovan thinktank Watchdog, said Moscow had overestimated the remaining pro-Moscow sentiment in the country. “Russia’s goal is to create tension,” he said, citing demystified viral reports that Romanian troops had deployed near the border with Moldova. But Moldova, with a population of just 2.5 million, has already suffered from mass migration and such pressures still have the potential to do more damage, Randu said. “I’m afraid the tension could trigger another wave of immigration – just as the government is trying to restore the diaspora.”
